All of the polling that showed Republicans gaining over the last few weeks appears to have missed a late Democratic midterm surge.
The polling just might be catching up with the voting data:
Last media poll released of the cycle, from @NBCNews, found what we're seeing in the early vote – Ds outperforming expectations, rising D intensity, no red wave yet.
Recent polls showing higher R intensity are likely wrong, far too R. Missed D surge. 3/https://t.co/YkxVevBZkd
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 6, 2022
People who study voting data have been raising red flags about the polling for weeks because there was no reason for the polls to suddenly shift in the direction of Republicans.
As the early and mail voting data started coming in, it was telling a vastly different story than the media polls. Democrats were overperforming their numbers from previous elections, just like they did in the 2022 special elections. Yet, the polls continued to suggest that momentum had shifted to Republicans. It was illogical and did not make sense.
There is a very conventional thought in electoral politics that the party that closes the strongest fares the best on election night.
Republicans who are populating cable news right now will not admit that their party, because of Donald Trump, selected some terrible candidates. Instead, they continue to repeat that abortion won’t matter as if it is a mantra that can be willed into existence through repetition.
No matter how the midterm turns out, Republicans took what should have been a slam dunk midterm win and turned it into an election that they are probably going to lose.
Taking back the House and not the Senate will be a defeat for Trump and the Republican Party.
Democrats are closing strong and if they keep it up through the close of the polls on Tuesday, they could pull off a surprise win.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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