U.S. Sen Bernie Sanders speaks during a campaign rally at Venice Beach in Los Angeles, California, U.S., December 21, 2019. REUTERS/Monica Almeida
Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 02:12 pm
In the final tracking poll of 2019, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has lost seven-points with Democratic voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
According to Morning Consult:
– Support for Sanders has fallen seven points among Democratic primary voters in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire or South Carolina since our last survey conducted before the Democratic presidential debate on Dec. 19, as front-runner and former Vice President Joe Biden opens up a 16-point gap over the Vermont senator with those early-state voters.
– At a respective 32% and 21% in this latest tracking poll, the standings of Biden and Sanders are essentially unchanged among Democratic primary voters nationwide since early February.
– Buttigieg has risen from virtual obscurity in February to sit at 8% nationally, and while Warren has seen her support fall in recent months, her five-point increase since February places her as a top candidate.
There are two different ways to interpret the numbers. The positive view for Sanders is that he has a rock-solid base of voting and fundraising support. No other Democratic candidate outside of Joe Biden has shown such a virtually unmoveable base of support.
Sen. Sanders has lots of money at his disposal and is positioned to be in the race for the long haul. He might be slipping in the early, but the 2020 primary is a marathon, not a sprint for Bernie Sanders.
The negative view is that Sen. Sanders has a high floor for his support, but he also appears to have firm ceiling on how high he can go. Pete Buttigieg has taken away voters who might be looking for a non-Biden option, and Elizabeth Warren has taken voters on the left who in 2016 went to Sanders by default. Buttigieg Warren and are equally well funded and they will be in the primary for the long term. If Sanders doesn’t win early, there is a chance that he doesn’t win at all.
Unlike Biden, Sanders doesn’t have a South Carolina firewall, but his level of support is so high that he is certain or close to meeting the 15% threshold for picking up delegates in each of the early states.
Bernie Sanders is a viable candidate for the nomination, but he is walking a tightrope, and if things go badly in the early stages, he could dig himself a hole that he can’t get out of.
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