FILE PHOTO: Faith leaders place their hands on the shoulders of U.S. President Donald Trump as he takes part in a prayer for those affected by Hurricane Harvey in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, U.S., September 1, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/Files
Trump’s support with white evangelicals is softening because they feel disrespected by this president.
According to the latest Morning Consult poll, “Fifty-five percent of white evangelical Protestants said they preferred to see Trump as the GOP’s nominee in the 2020 presidential election when given other options, such as Vice President Mike Pence or any other Republican figures. That’s 16 percentage points less than the share of self-identified Republicans who said the same, and a large drop from the 80 percent of white evangelicals who voted for Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton in November 2016.”
Trump has lost 25 points of firm support with white evangelicals since 2016. The White House has tried to cater to this key part of his constituency, but as with everything else Trump-related, their lack of support has less to do with the policy, and more do with the character of Trump.
The reason why white evangelicals are drifting away from Trump is respect. The same Morning Consult poll found, “Nearly two in ten (18 percent) white evangelical Protestants also said Trump has no respect for them at all – double the share who said the same of the Republican Party (9 percent). Seven percent of Republicans said the commander in chief has no respect for them.”
The 2020 election is not going to be about the border or the economy. The presidential election is going to be a referendum on Trump, with healthcare serving as the major issue that turns Trump’s beliefs into a kitchen table worry for every American.
Trump won the White House by less than 80,000 votes in three states. With a low approval rating, he has no margin for error in 2020. If even a small percentage of white evangelicals don’t vote, it puts Trump in danger of defeat. Trump is depending on replaying the 2016 election to win in 2020. Any variable change that goes against Trump could doom his reelection bid.
Evangelical support for Trump is soft. If this trend continues, it could spell doom for Republicans in 2020.
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