U.S. President Donald Trump gives two thumbs up as he talks about the arrest of a bombing suspect sought in connection with packages sent to Democratic political figures and critics of the president during an event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., October 26, 2018. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Never in the history of polling have a president’s numbers plunged on the direction of the country while unemployment was so low.
The new Monmouth University national poll shows Trump’s approval rating stuck in the lower end of his average at 40%, but the number that should worry Republicans is on the direction of the country:
The number of people who think that the economy is going in the right direction has dropped from 40% in June of 2018 to 28% in April 2019. The number who feel that the country is on the wrong track has grown from 53% in June of 2018 to 62% in April 2018. There has been a 21 point net swing against Trump and the direction of the country in less than a year.
A normal president would be able to point to the low unemployment rate, and cruise to a second term. Trump is not a normal president. The Monmouth University poll is another piece of data that suggests that the 2020 election will be about Trump, not the economy. Voters have problems with Trump’s tax cuts, immigration policy, healthcare policy, racism, and bigotry.
The 2020 election won’t be about the economic numbers.
Any model of study that uses economic data solely to project a Trump win is setting itself up for failure.
A vast majority of voters want change, so Democrats could make history by making Trump a one-term president while the unemployment rate is low.
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