Republican Greg Gianfonte has been declared the projected winner of the special House election in Montana.
The official election results will be available here.
Republican Greg Gianforte is still favored to win despite assaulting a reporter, but the race has tightened due to the health care issue in the last two weeks.
Nate Cohn of The New York Times warns that we could be in for a very long night:
Bad news about Montana: The count could take a while.
D primary wasn't called until 2AM (Sanders+7)
Gov '16 wasn't called until 10AM (D+4)— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) May 25, 2017
Early results show Gianforte running ahead of what he needs in Billings and Helena:
We already have some early resultsfrom Montana, and they're good for Gianforte. He's running ahead of what he needs in Helena and Billings
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) May 26, 2017
CNN’s Jake Tapper with a reminder that a whole bunch of people already voted:
Reminder that as polls in Montana close, 259,558 votes — of the state's 700,000 registered voters — voted early
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) May 26, 2017
10:15 PM ET: Early voting results with 103, 194 votes in: Quist 48% Gianforte 46.2%
From Decision Desk HQ: Looking at some early voting from counties of interest:
Yellewstone (slighty R leaning): 56/37 Gianforte
Lewis and Clark (normally moderately blue): 52/42 Quist
10:19 PM ET: With 104, 509 votes in Quist: 47.8% Gianforte: 46.3%.
Steve Kornacki:
Missoula – early vote
Quist 61%
Gianforte 34%Was Clinton +16
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 26, 2017
10:24 PM ET: With 159,662 votes in: Quist: 47.6 Gianforte: 46.9%
10:27 PM ET: With 162, 574 votes in Gianforte 47.3% Quist: 47%
10:28: PM ET: With 185,061 votes in Gianforte: 47.4% Quist: 46.9%
10:30 PM ET: With 190,890 votes in Gianforte: 47.6% Quist: 46.7%
Steve Kornacki:
Good news for Gianforte: eastern Montana – rural and overwhelmingly GOP, not reporting yet
Hope for Quist: Same-day surge in Missoula?— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 26, 2017
10:40 PM ET With 191,086 votes in Gianforte 47.6% Quist: 46.7%
Update: 10:43 PM ET: Gianforte 47.7% Quist: 46.6%
Update: 10:49 PM ET: With 196,415 votes in Gianforte 48% Quist: 46.2%
With 199,788 total votes in: Gianforte: 48.3% Quist: 46%.
Update: 11:01 PM ET: With 202, 609 votes in: Gianforte: 48.6% Quist: 45.7%
With 203,677 votes in Gianforte: 48.6% Quist: 45.6%
Update: 11:06 PM ET: Gianforte: 48.7% Quist: 45.6%
Steve Kornacki:
Gianforte continues to roll up Trump-ish margins in small eastern counties. McCone was 81-15% Trump. 77-19% for Gianforte tonight.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 26, 2017
Update: Gianforte: 49.2% Quist: 45%
Update Gianforte: 49.9% Quist: 44.3%
The Trump vote has largely held for Gianforte so this race looks over:
So far in #MTAL, Flathead County (Kalispell) is the only county where Gianforte is doing worse than his #MTGov performance last year. pic.twitter.com/hZEDb4oaxZ
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) May 26, 2017
Decision Desk has called the race for Gianforte:
We project that Greg Gianforte has won the #MTAL special election. #MTAL https://t.co/61tksgfeKf
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) May 26, 2017
It looks Gianforte will be another red state Republican who substantially underperformed Trump’s margin of victory in 2016. The Montana result only confirms that Democratic momentum is building towards 2018.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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