President Obama’s economy has a surprise planned for late October that could be the final nail in the political coffin of Donald Trump.
The Wall Street Journal reported on some economic numbers that could be a huge October surprise for Trump:
It’s not a trick or conspiracy, simply the product of the government’s regular schedule for releasing economic statistics. The Commerce Department’s first estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter has long been scheduled to come out on Oct. 28, 11 days before the Nov. 8 presidential election. Many economists are predicting the report will show a pickup in growth after three straight quarters of lackluster expansion, fueled by decent-if-not-great consumer spending and the end of a five-quarter drag from lackluster business inventories.
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Still, if the pace of GDP growth exceeds 2.6% for the current quarter, it would be the strongest growth rate since the 5% pace seen in the third quarter of 2014. That won’t decide the election either way, but good news could benefit Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who has positioned herself as the political heir to President Barack Obama and his stewardship of the economy. Similar good news came last week when the government reported that U.S. household incomes surged in 2015 while the poverty rate declined.
Trump’s entire economic argument is based on the idea that America is in the dumpster, and only he can make America great again. However, if the debates fail to move the election away from its current trajectory, and it is a safe bet that despite hot takes, hot air, and breathless headlines, the election will probably remain on its well established current course.
A burst of good economic data a little more than ten days might not trigger a wave of voter change, but it is likely to be the nail in the coffin that could end Trump’s charge argument while cementing the voter consensus for Clinton.
The biggest October surprise might not be leaked emails, Russian hacks, or unforeseen candidate blunders. President Obama’s growing economy could be the final finger that tips the electoral scale in 2016.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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